We forecast that Amazon will sell nearly 6 million of its just-announced Fire TV streaming devices in the U.S. this year.
Amazon's new streaming device will begin shipping today. The device is priced at $99, on par with Apple TV, but well above Google's Chromecast.
- Amazon will sell 5.8 million Fire TVs in the U.S. this year, giving it about one-fifth of the streaming device market share by sales.
- Apple will still be the top streaming device this year, selling 8.8 million Apple TVs, accounting for just under one-third of the streaming device market.
- Roku will come in third, selling about 5 million devices.
- Google's Chromecast will round out the top four, selling 4 million devices during the year.
Our forecast is based on the trajectory of Kindle Fire sales, alongside the trends we've been tracking closely in the streaming device market. Google, for example, sold 2.7 million Chromecasts in the U.S. in the first two quarters the devices were on the market, according to data from Hillside Partners.
It's important to bear in mind, Amazon has a unique advantage within the streaming device market.
It already has a significant media ecosystem, and thus a built-in audience for the Amazon Fire TV. For anyone with a Prime subscription, including many Kindle Fire users, the appeal of the Amazon Fire will be unlimited access to Amazon Instant, the company's streaming service.
And like Netflix, the company is betting big that original content will make Amazon Instant even more appealing. Amazon recently approved six new original series for production.
The company's Kindle Fire tablets and Prime subscription strategy demonstrate that Amazon knows how to incentivize users to stay within the Amazon ecosystem. The company is expected to generate $5.7 billion in revenue from digital media this year, according to Morgan Stanley.
Dow nload the chart and data in Excel.
