(Over) Counting Widgets

from A VC by Fred

I got an email from a friend the other day.

"Did you see that Clearspring has served 3bn widgets in the past five months?"

I hadn't actually seen that news, but here is the press release my friend was referring to. It's clearly an impressive number and Clearspring is doing some great things in the widget market.

But before we start putting Clearsping in McDonalds territory (billions served), let's get something straight. Serving widgets generates huge numbers quickly.

All you need to do is look at Photobucket, Slide, and RockYou's numbers for their photo/slideshow widgets to see how powerful the widget model is. I don't have access to the actual numbers for these three photo widget services and I'd prefer not to print the rumors I've heard, but I'd venture a guess that their numbers for widgets served each day will make Clearspring's 3bn number look tiny.

I do know the numbers for FeedBurner's widgets and they are well north of what Clearspring is serving. But this post is not about whose you know what is bigger than whose.

It's about the challenge of understanding what is what in the widget market.

Max Levchin, Slide's founder and CEO, is one of the most thoughtful people in the widget market and I've had some conversations with him about the challenges of measuring widgets. He's frustrated that there isn't good third party data on the widget market. I've also talked to the team at comScore about this issue because it's starting to become an issue everyone is paying attention to and there just isn't good data yet.

You can get unique visitor counts from comScore on widgets like Photobucket, Slide, and RockYou, but what does it mean? Here is the comScore data on the photo widget sector (the top three players).

Are those 18mm uniques that are attributed to Photobucket being seen on Photobucket.com? Or are those 18mm uniques the number of people that are being exposed to the Photobucket widget wherever it is being embedded (MySpace, Beebo, etc). I don't know the answer to that simple question, but it's an important one.

And what's the right number to look at? Should Photobucket get credit for having an audience that sees its widget on other services pages? When that page includes five to ten other widgets? Or should it just get credit for those who interact with the widget in some way?

The bottom line is we need better numbers on widgets, we need some standards, and we need them now.

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17 ways to beat Google - Search innovations and who is doing them

from Don Dodge on The Next Big Thing by DonDodge

Nitin Karandikar sent me a link to his post on "Top 17 Search Innovations outside of Google" which reviews 17 different approaches to web search innovation. He also lists some of the companies leading the way in each area. Web search is a very popular topic for writers and bloggers. Charles Knight maintains a list of the Top 100 Alternative Search Engines and updates it monthly.

Web search is big business. Microsoft's Live Search is third in market share with about 10% of all web searches and it generates hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. It is no wonder that VCs and entrepreneurs are investing lots of time and money to discover The Next Big Thing in search.

Of all the approaches described by Nitin and listed by Charles Knight, I think three are promising; Natural Language Processing, Local Search, and Cell Phone Voice Search.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) has been around for a while. The idea is to get users to ask questions in conversational style, and then parse that question using NLP techniques to divine meaning and context. The problem is that most users only enter two words in a search...sometimes three words. No matter how sophisticated your NLP technology is you aren't going to gain a lot more context from two or three words. The real secret power of NLP is realized by applying it to the search index...not the search term. Meaning, analyze all the web pages in the index with the NLP and add lots of meta tags, meaning, and context to the index. Then when search queries come in you can match the keywords to the much richer index. Powerset is doing some ground breaking work in this area.

Local Search is a huge market. The easy part of local search has already been done. The big search engines have developed crawlers to crawl all web pages, parse and extract local identifying information, and cross reference it to other online data. The problem is that over 50% of small local businesses don't have web sites. A great local search experience requires that ALL local businesses are included and that the index be updated regularly. CitySquares Online is a Boston based startup attacking this problem.

Cell phone voice based search is an obvious opportunity, but very hard to do. It requires great voice recognition technology, a well organized local search index, a high quality voice response system, and special screen rendering technology to display the results on the cell phone screen. Parts of the technology exist today, but no one has combined all the pieces into a great user experience. This is a huge opportunity with no clear leader.

OK, now back to Nitin's list of 17 search innovation areas. Please go to his site to get more detail on each one. Unless you are a search geek like me you may find this stuff boring, but here are the categories;

1. Natural Language Processing
2. Personalization
3. Vertical Search
4. Multimedia Search
5. Restricted Data Sources
6. Domain Specific Search
7. Parametric Search
8. Social network filtering
9. Human directed search
10. Semantic search
11. Discovery linked search
12. Classification, Tags, Clustering approaches
13. Results visualization
14. Results refinement and filters
15. Specialized search platforms
16. Related searches
17. Search agents

What do you think? Who will be the next Google? Which approach to search will provide the most value? Place your bets and you could be the next search billionaire.

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Writings on Starbucks Cup Upsets Customer

Controversy is brewing around a religious quote printed on a Starbucks cup, which has turned at least one customer off from the brand.

An Ohio woman was offended by one of hundreds of comments submitted by customers and celebrities that appear on the cups as part of Starbuck’s The Way I See It program. The program is meant to spark discussion and get people thinking about a variety of topics, including religion, the company said.

The offending quote reads, "Why in moments of crisis do we ask God for strength and help? As cognitive beings, why would we ask something that may well be a figment of our imaginations for guidance? Why not search inside ourselves for the power to overcome? After all, we are strong enough to cause most of the catastrophes we need to endure."

The comment was made by Bill Scheel, a Starbucks customer from London, Ontario, who describes himself as a "modern day nobody."

The Ohio woman, Michelle Incanno, told news outlets that she would not return to Starbucks.

Starbucks has been printing comments from celebrities, notable figures and customers on its cups since 2005. It has collected more than 250 writings since the initiative launched. By yearend, the company expects to feature about 300 different comments.

"Our goal with The Way I See It is to promote a free and open exchange of ideas and thoughts on a wide variety of topics," Starbucks spokesperson Tricia Moriarty said. "We think this tradition of dialogue and discussion is an important facet of the coffeehouse experience."

The fact that Scheel's comments are sparking dialogue "is the original intent of the program," she added.

A disclaimer on Starbucks.com/WayISeeIt says the authors' opinions do not necessary reflect those of the company.

"Starbucks frequently receives feedback on many of the quotes as people express their thoughts and views on the different quotes and contributors," Moriarty said. "We highly value all of our customers and never wish to offend anyone. The objective of the program is to encourage open and thoughtful discussion."

This particular quote may have gained a head of steam because numerous media outlets picked up on it.

Despite the negative feedback, Starbucks has no plans to remove any of the writings from its cups, Moriarty said.

Only a few comments cover religion. But those that do have different points of view, Moriarty said.

For instance, musician Mike Doughty, wrote, "It's tragic that extremists co-opt the notion of God, and that hipsters and artists reject spirituality out of hand. I don't have a fixed idea of God. But I feel that it's us—the messed-up, the half-crazy, the burning, the questing—that need God, a lot more than the goody-two-shoes do."

Others have a humorous tone. A quote from Joseph Palm, a Starbucks customer from Oshkosh, Wisconsin, said, "Scientists tell us we only use 5% of our brains. But if they only used 5% of their brains to reach that conclusion, then why should we believe them?"

Customers can share their thoughts about the cups or submit a quote of their own to Starbucks.com/Retail/TheWayISeeIt_Comments.asp. Starbucks said its posts responses on its letters to the editors section on the Web site.

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High school students capture assault on video

from Boing Boing by David Pescovitz

David Pescovitz: A group of Toronto high school students on a field trip captured footage of an auto driver attacking a bicyclist who reportedly stopped in front of him at a yellow light. The interesting thing is that the students were out with videocameras investigating the notion of "public and private space" in their city. Toronto CityNews has the video online. Link (Thanks, Jess Hemerly!) (notice the amateur footage taken by video cameras, to be captured by videocameraphones soon)

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Hollywood is burning (yet again) - UPDATED, video.

from Boing Boing by Xeni Jardin (notice the Flickr image attribution)

5:06pm: Helicopters are circling overhead where I am right now, not too far from an ongoing 200+ acre fire in Griffith Park, a little bit east of the Hollywood Sign in Los Angeles. Flames are still live, and there's talk of arson

an arson suspect in custody.

Image courtesy of Flickr user Swingsha. Bear in mind that this was shot from a number of miles away, over the hill, in Burbank. You can see the fire/smoke plumes from just about anywhere in LA right now.

LATIMES blog has good updates.

It started as a small brush fire in the park, at about 120pm. I could see the smoke plume all the way from the NPR studios in Culver City a few hours ago. Driving from there towards this site, north on Western through Koreatown (a few miles away), I could see very large flames and clumps of black and brown smoke above the chaparral hills. It's huge. And it's crazy hot (100 F), gusty-windy, and dry out today, unseasonably so.

Humans have been evacuated from the LA Zoo and the Autry Museum (both inside the park), but I understand the more fragile critters inside the zoo (about 1,000 of 'em!) are instead staying put, under protection. No word on the ponies and the carousel, and the teeny tiny steam engine ride.

The guys at blogging.la have a number of related items up. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

BoingBoing pal Michael P. points to more photos on Flickr, and says,

We must go free the animals at the zoo NOW.

(Thanks also, Ape Lad and others)

UPDATE: Sean Bonner just called, out riding around the area on his bicycle -- he's roaming near the fire site, phonecamming what he encounters: Flickr stream, and one of the shots is below.

And eecue just uploaded this HDR shot...

UPDATE, 745pm: OK, there are a hell of a lot more helicopters, flying even lower and more frequently now. I guess some of these are news choppers, but some may be first responders, too? All I can hear are sirens and roaring helicopters overhead. I think we're about a quarter mile or less from the center of the burn area (though not in any immediate path of harm). They're saying it's 20-25% under control now. The numbers don't feel too comforting at the moment.

The power is out in much of our neighborhood now. Our DSL has been down for a while, and I'm using my EVDO card to blog this.

7:53: Someone just called me from a few blocks away via mobile, even closer to the burn site, and says the fire is coming closer to where we are, moving down the hill, towards houses, spreading out and covering an even larger area. The hills are glowing red, much ash in the air, heavy smoke smell. Lots of people in the streets looking up at the burn. Small planes circling. We're packing up a few essentials now, just in case the wind gets super hinky and we receive an evacuation order.

Local TV news is reporting the fire was started by a golfer who tossed a cigarette aside while playing golf in the course nearby.

8:30pm: Friend shot this photo a few blocks away, an hour ago. The air is extremely thick with smoke and ash. More homes now without power, increasingly. Officers going door to door instructing people of mandatory evacuation orders a few blocks way. All the newscasts I'm watching are covering the immediate area outside our house, which is weird. Windows and doors all closed here, neighbors doing the same. Sky overhead at night now is dark orange-red, hills look like lava flowing down. Hot Santa Ana winds, gusty, fast, from the northwest. I've lived here for years, through many fires, never seen anything this big.

8:50pm: Cops shutting down Los Feliz boulevard (big street here) now, to minimize incoming traffic from gawkers. Unclear if the shutdown order will make it more difficult to get out. Police on bullhorns giving mandatory evacuation orders about 5 blocks from here. They're closing more streets by the minute, and placing evacuees in a nearby high school shelter.

9:01pm: They're describing the fire's movement as having "exploded" over the past hour. No homes burned yet, but lots in imminent danger, and evacuations under way. 250 acres burned now. Landmark "Dante's View" destroyed, bird refuge in immediate danger. "Deer and coyotes here are running for their lives," a councilman at the burn site is saying on local news right now. Some animals who live in the park are running into the street now.

9:08pm: Cops going door to door evacuating people nearby now. Fire appears to be spreading via embers? New spots of burn now, burn area obviously growing, even from our distance. Guy on TV: "How did the firefighters not see this coming and plan for contingency? It's moved all over the place now."

9:19pm: 300 acres estimated burned now. Here's a cameraphone video shot a few blocks away, at 7:55pm, by M.D. Video Link.

Winds close to the fire are very hot and very strong now, which may be Venturi effect.

Outside my window, it looks like a giant SRL show on the hill. Big flame tornado shapes reaching up into the sky.

We're packing stuff up now. Homes close to us are being given evacuation orders and we might need to get out if things change once again for the worse. Ash and live embers are floating in the air, eyes burn, throat itchy when you step outside.

Policeman on TV saying lots of homeless people who live inside the park, up in the chaparral hills, are evacuating onto the street.

Electricity outages and mobile phone problems are resulting from the destruction of (or damage to) towers inside the park.

Lots more videos now at Blogging.la, and more updates: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Reader comment: David says,

Hey, I live a mile under the fire. We've been watching the new flare up for the past few hours. Thought I'd share photos from it: Link. This is also where the Greek Theatre is as well -- and we think its gone!

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